How do odds change: early underdog vs late favorite?

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  • #247692
    SwehRose
    Participant

    You ever place a bet on a team early in the week thinking you’re being clever, just to watch the odds flip completely by game day? Happened to me not long ago with a tennis match — I backed the underdog on Tuesday at pretty long odds. But by Friday, he was suddenly the favorite after news came out about the other player nursing a wrist injury. Made me wish I’d waited. It’s weird how fast things can change, and it gets me thinking — are you better off going with the early odds when the underdog still looks weak, or waiting to see if the favorite status flips around closer to the match?

    #247713
    JannyLii
    Participant

    Honestly, yeah, I’ve run into that a few times too. It’s kind of tricky because waiting can definitely give you more info, but the odds might get worse if everyone piles in late. I found this piece the other day that actually talks about it in a super relatable way — not too technical or anything. The idea is that https://www.mumbaikarsperspective.com/entertainment/why-early-birds-dont-always-get-the-worm-when-betting-on/cid16925647.htm — going in early doesn’t always mean you’re getting the best value. I’ve started holding off until closer to the event now unless there’s a crazy good opening line. Once I waited till 30 minutes before an NBA game started, after hearing last-minute injury news, and it totally flipped my bet. So yeah, sometimes patience actually pays off.

    #247714
    emma.co
    Participant

    Just scrolling through the forum and saw this thread pop up. Gotta say, I never really thought too deep about the timing of odds, but the topic’s pretty interesting. Makes sense how fast things can shift with last-minute updates or news. Cool to see people breaking it down without turning it into some intense debate.

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